BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) accounted for 94% of US spot Bitcoin ETFs’ net withdrawals in the completed November 2-6 week, leaving one fund responsible for most of the category’s retreat. That leaves the next recovery test focused on one fund: can IBIT’s withdrawals slow?
The 12 funds tracked by Farside Investors recorded weekly net outflows of $1,282 million. IBIT recorded net outflows of $1,210 million. Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) moved in the opposite direction, recording weekly net inflows of $93 million.
IBIT’s share was 94.4% of the aggregate net withdrawal, after positive flows elsewhere offset part of the withdrawals. The denominator is net fund flows across the group, not gross redemptions or all Bitcoin selling.
All funds other than IBIT collectively recorded net outflows of $72 million during the week. Removing IBIT’s withdrawals from that calculation would substantially reduce the shortfall while leaving the remaining group negative.
The daily pattern also matters. IBIT recorded withdrawals in each of the five sessions, while the group finished positive only on November 4. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $412 million on November 6.
Fidelity was a counterweight across the week, despite recording withdrawals on Thursday. Three other funds also finished the week positive. The picture was therefore more uneven than a universal exit from Bitcoin funds, although the positive products did not offset the category’s largest withdrawal source.
Wednesday’s Fidelity-led inflows failed to persist: Thursday’s withdrawals restored the negative aggregate reading, and Friday ended the week with another outflow.
iShares reported IBIT net assets of about $61 billion as of November 6. The week’s withdrawals were roughly 2% of that ending asset base.
Redemptions also need care when connecting fund flows to Bitcoin selling. The IBIT prospectus describes both cash and in-kind settlement. A cash redemption involves the trust selling bitcoin and delivering cash. An in-kind redemption delivers bitcoin to an authorized participant, the intermediary handling the redemption, or its designated agent or client.
Choose the settlement route
Bitcoin is sold for cash, which is delivered to the authorized participant.
Bitcoin is delivered to the authorized participant or its designated agent or client.
Cash settlement sells bitcoin for cash; in-kind settlement delivers bitcoin.
Permitted mechanics, not a record of the November 2-6 settlement mix. The diagram omits operational intermediaries and fees and does not show subsequent activity by the recipient.
Farside’s net-flow figures do not disclose which route funded the week’s withdrawals or what recipients subsequently did with bitcoin. They cannot establish an equivalent amount of contemporaneous open-market sales, investors’ motives, or a proprietary bearish allocation by BlackRock.
The demand test around Tuesday’s inflation release
Bitcoin’s price was about $75,759 at 10:44 UTC on November 8, according to CryptoSlate’s Bitcoin data.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics schedules the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) release for Tuesday, November 10, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, or 13:30 UTC. Monday’s completed fund session will provide another observation before the release; subsequent sessions will provide the comparison afterward.
The Federal Reserve explains that policy rates influence borrowing costs and broader financial conditions. Whether CPI changes policy expectations in a way that supports Bitcoin remains a conditional test.
For ETF demand, the distinction is observable. Smaller IBIT withdrawals alongside a negative aggregate total would show easing redemption pressure at IBIT. Positive aggregate flows would establish net ETF inflows for that session; participation across funds and persistence over subsequent completed sessions would provide stronger evidence of sustained fund demand.
